Newsletter: What to watch for in the Kentucky-Kansas game

The first marquee matchup of the Kentucky basketball season is here.

And it’s going to be quite a battle for the Wildcats.

Mark Pope’s squad will start Week 2 of the 2026-27 season with the Kansas Jayhawks, a team that was ranked 15th in yesterday’s Associated Press Top 25 poll but came into the week looking far better than that number, thanks to some late roster additions that have completely reshaped the program’s outlook.

One of those late additions, however, won't suit up for KU in tonight's game.

The school announced yesterday that fifth-year guard Melvin Council Jr. suffered a broken foot in practice and will have surgery this week. The Jayhawks' statement said the team hopes to have Council back in time for Big 12 play.

Even without Council, the Cats' opponent tonight will be much more formidable than it appeared would be the case just a few weeks ago.

Kansas was No. 19 in the preseason AP poll, but those votes were tallied before Bill Self managed to land Trey Kaufman-Renn out of the transfer portal last month, an addition that came not long after the Jayhawks were able to retain Council and Tre White (two key players from the previous season’s team), thanks to the ongoing court battles between college basketball veterans seeking a fifth season of eligibility and the NCAA.

However those court cases end, Kaufman-Renn and White will both be on the floor against the Cats tonight in the Champions Classic in Chicago, with tipoff set for 9:30 p.m. ET (likely to be later than that) on ESPN.

It’s difficult to overstate the importance these three players will have on Kansas this season. While Pope attempted to benefit from the late wave of fifth-years and fell short, with Mark Mitchell heading back to Missouri after SEC transfer rules got in the way, Self cleaned up amid the fall roster-building frenzy.

Council, who emerged as the heart and soul of KU’s 2025-26 season, which was largely defined by star freshman Darryn Peterson’s inability to stay on the court, and White both started all 35 games for the Jayhawks. They were among the team’s top four players last season and should be in that tier again in 2026-27, once Council returns from injury.

White averaged 13.5 points and 6.7 rebounds per game last season, second on the team in both categories, and is leading the Jayhawks in scoring with 15.5 points through two games so far this season.

Kaufman-Renn, who has successfully (so far) lobbied for a sixth season of NCAA eligibility after sitting out his first year at Purdue as a redshirt, was a controversial coup for Self last month. The former Boilermakers star was a first-team All-Big Ten selection in 2025 and averaged 14.2 points and 8.3 rebounds last season before going with the No. 59 pick in the 2026 NBA draft.

He did not sign a pro contract, however, and — though his legal case is ongoing — he is currently allowed to play for KU, a move that has ruffled some feathers in the college basketball community.

It’s also made Kansas a whole lot better. While the Jayhawks are No. 15 in the AP rankings, the computers have them ranked much higher. KU Is No. 5 nationally in the KenPom ratings, No. 4 on EvanMiya.com and No. 2 (behind only Duke, which plays Michigan State in Game 1 of the Champions Classic tonight) in the Torvik ratings.

Even with Council sidelined, this should be one of the toughest tests of the Pope era.

The UK coach has been involved in six games against teams that finished the season in the top five of the KenPom ratings, with all of those matchups coming in his first season. The Cats were actually 4-2 in such games, with wins over Duke (No. 1), eventual national champion Florida (No. 3), two victories over Tennessee (No. 5) and losses to Auburn (No. 4) and the Vols in the NCAA Tournament.

Some of the humans are realigning their early fall expectations, too, taking KU's late roster moves into account.

Gary Parrish of CBS Sports has Kansas at No. 5 in his latest rankings, and longtime college basketball writer Seth Davis had the Jayhawks at No. 4 on his AP Top 25 ballot yesterday. Twelve additional AP voters (including ESPN's Jeff Borzello, The Athletic's CJ Moore and Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports) put Kansas in their new top 10.

If not for the October additions of Kaufman-Renn, Council and White, the Jayhawks likely would not have been ranked at all coming into the season.

Kentucky is No. 24 in the latest AP Top 25 poll, down one spot from last week.

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Don’t forget about Stokes

The old guys got the headlines this fall, but the overall trajectory of Kansas’ season is likely to depend on the development of star freshman Tyran Stokes, the No. 1 prospect in the 2026 recruiting class and a longtime target for Pope and the Wildcats.

Stokes, who is listed at 6-8 and 230 pounds, is a do-everything, positionless player and an early favorite to go with the No. 1 pick in next year’s NBA draft. He was also one of the primary reasons for the angst directed at Pope this past offseason, with the Kentucky coach putting all of his eggs in one basket — likely losing another top-10 recruit or two as a result — and coming up short with Stokes, much to the consternation of those who closely follow UK recruiting.

And now Pope will have to deal with the Louisville native in the first big game of what could be a pivotal season in his tenure.

Stokes hasn’t had to show much yet, with KU beating Fordham by 30 points in its season opener and Middle Tennessee State by 44 points Friday night, but he’s still averaging 11.5 points and 6.0 rebounds in 23.0 minutes per game. He should be on the court a whole lot more tonight. How Pope goes about trying to stop him — and how much returning wing Kam Williams factors into that strategy — will be worth following.

Oh, and the other member of the Jayhawks’ starting five: point guard Tay Kinney, another freshman from Kentucky who Pope pursued during the 2026 recruiting cycle. Kinney is averaging 4.0 points and 2.0 assists in 22.5 minutes per game so far.

An opportunity for Moreno

ESPN released its updated NBA draft board last week, and Stokes was No. 1 on the list. Malachi Moreno, meanwhile, was No. 14, the final pick in lottery range.

That’s a designation that not all talent evaluators agree on. There are plenty out there who remain skeptical of Moreno’s game at the next level, as well the overall impact he’s likely to have on Kentucky’s season, and tonight’s matchup will be an important one for the sophomore big man.

After playing 34-plus minutes in each of UK’s final two exhibition games, Moreno got in foul trouble in the season opener against Manhattan and played only 20 minutes. He then logged just 22 minutes in an 89-80 win over James Madison on Friday night, with Pope leaving him on the bench for the final 7:26 after the 7-footer struggled to keep up with JMU’s smaller, quicker lineup.

For the Cats to be at their best, Moreno will need to stay on the court, and the matchup with Kansas will be a good early season barometer for the NBA draft hopeful. KU essentially starts four guards — that’s how Stokes (6-8, 230) and White (6-7, 210) are both listed — with Kaufman-Renn (6-9, 240) the de facto 5 in Self’s lineup.

There’s a lot of talent in that trio, but Moreno (listed at 7-feet and 250 pounds) will have a decided size advantage over all of them, and it will be interesting to see how much Pope tries to play through his 5 man (a key part of his preferred offensive approach) in this particular matchup.

Kansas does have Charleston transfer Christian Reeves (7-2, 260) and Utah transfer Keanu Dawes (6-9, 225 and a possible starter now that Council is out) off the bench, and while Reeves will play some (providing a different look for Moreno), the majority of those minutes at the 5 are going to go to Kaufman-Renn, who has never been regarded as a rim-protector.

Can Moreno take advantage of the size difference to establish himself in the post while continuing to step out and help the Cats’ offense function as a passer and screener? And how will he do defending the smaller, crafty Kaufman-Renn, who has a knack for getting bigger frontcourt players off their feet defensively?

Dozens of NBA scouts will be there to see how this plays out. More importantly for the short term, Moreno (and the Cats) could get a real early season boost if he shows up big tonight.

Computer predictions

So, what are the outside expectations? That it’s going to be a bad night for the Wildcats.

Both the KenPom and Torvik projections give the Jayhawks a 73% likelihood of victory, with both sites spitting out a seven-point Kansas win. (83-76 for KenPom; 81-74 at Torvik.)

Those numbers do not take Council's absence into account, but the EvanMiya.com predictions were updated after the player's injury was announced. Before Council was ruled out for the game, that site was projecting a nine-point win for the Jayhawks. Even with the veteran guard out, EvanMiya.com is predicting Kansas will beat Kentucky 80-73, with a 72% chance of victory.

The betting lines also didn't change much as a result of Council's injury. Before he was hurt, Kansas was a 5.5-point favorite. Hours after the injury was announced, the Jayhawks were still a 4.5-point favorite.

Come back to Inside Kentucky Basketball tomorrow morning for a recap from Chicago, and be sure to tune into Countdown to Tipoff at 8 p.m. tonight (both on ESPN+ and the UK Sports Network radio affiliates) for more pregame insight.